US AI hiring pressure could narrow Eastern Europe tech pay gap by 2028

New research from Robert Walters and Native Teams says surging US demand for AI, cyber and cloud talent is pushing up salaries in Eastern Europe and other emerging tech markets. The gap between US and Eastern European pay for tech roles could shrink from 54% to 46% by 2028 as global hiring accelerates.

Why it matters: - US companies competing for scarce AI, cyber and cloud talent are already influencing pay outside the US. - The shift could make Eastern Europe a more expensive but more competitive sourcing market for tech hiring. - The same talent shortage is also linked to faster AI adoption, since companies need specialists to deploy systems and build capability.

What happened: - Robert Walters and Native Teams released new research on July 1, 2026, in New York. - The forecast says cross-border hiring by US firms could narrow the salary gap between the US and Eastern Europe for tech roles from 54% to 46% by 2028. - The research focuses on AI, cloud and cyber roles, where demand is rising fastest. - The report also says Eastern Europe is seeing stronger annual salary growth in those roles than the US over the next three years.

The details: - Mid-level software developer base pay in Eastern Europe is projected to rise from $48,000 today to more than $60,000 by 2028. - Equivalent US salaries are forecast to increase from $104,000 to around $112,000 over the same period. - Phill Brown, Global Head of Market Intelligence at Robert Walters, said US tech demand is exporting salary pressure internationally as businesses race to secure specialist AI capability. - Brown said the pace of demand is moving faster than local talent pipelines can scale. - Brown said access to specialist digital expertise is becoming a strategic growth issue for US multinational employers. - Jack Thorogood, Founder and CEO of Native Teams, said remote-work infrastructure for payroll, payments and compliance is now mature enough to make distributed teams easier to run at scale. - Thorogood said US companies are getting more comfortable hiring globally for specialized technical roles, which increases competition and pushes salaries higher. - The research is part of a wider report on how global hiring corridors are reshaping workforce strategies, salary expectations and access to specialist talent. - The methodology uses 2026 mid-level software developer salary benchmarks projected to 2028 with market-specific annual growth rates and compound growth assumptions for AI, cloud and cyber roles. - Robert Walters says it has more than 2,900 people in 29 countries and provides recruitment consultancy, staffing, recruitment process outsourcing and managed services. - Native Teams says its platform supports payroll, compliance and work operations in 95+ countries and is trusted by 3,000+ businesses.

Between the lines: - The data suggests AI hiring is no longer a local labor-market issue; it is a cross-border pricing force. - As US employers widen their search, emerging tech hubs may gain opportunity and face upward pressure on pay at the same time. - The report also ties talent scarcity to productivity, implying AI investment may stall without faster access to specialist workers. - The research follows a separate forecast that one in two AI roles could go unfilled in the US by 2028, with a shortage of more than 800,000 AI professionals. - That same forecast says expanding AI hiring outside domestic labor markets could lift US productivity growth by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points annually.

What's next: - The salary gap could keep narrowing if US firms continue to expand global hiring for AI, cloud and cyber roles. - Eastern European tech hubs may see continued investment from multinational employers building distributed teams. - Companies competing in AI will likely keep prioritizing speed of access to talent over geography. - The broader impact will depend on whether local talent pipelines can scale fast enough to meet demand.